Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate

BACKGROUND: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST).
OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios.
METHODS: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was con- ducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5.
RESULTS: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompa- nied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure–response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16C revealed a relative risk ðRRÞ = 1:14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p = 0:024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades.
CONCLUSIONS: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change.

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